April 2026 | Market Insight

April Market Insights

‍By Mark Rudnitsky, Senior Executive at Inland Transport, Inc.

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Demand is actually real this time

For a while, it was hard to tell if freight was truly improving or if there were just fewer trucks making things look better.

Now it’s starting to feel legit. Tender data, manufacturing numbers, and spot activity are all lining up, which usually means the market is genuinely shifting.

Here’s what we’re seeing:

• Tender rejections have doubled since November, hitting 14.46% in March
• Manufacturing is back in expansion (ISM at 52.7, S&P at 52.4)
• Regional markets like Richmond and Kansas City are bouncing back
• Spot loads are at their highest levels since mid-2022
• Load postings are up 35% year over year

Simple version: more freight is moving, and carriers are pushing back on cheap rates. That’s real demand.

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Capacity is tighter—and more disciplined

On the carrier side, things have changed.

Costs have gone way up, and a lot of carriers didn’t survive:

• Operating costs hit $2.26 per mile
• Non-fuel costs alone are at $1.779
• Driver wages are near $0.80 per mile
• Equipment payments have jumped significantly
• Around 20,000 fleets have exited since 2023

The carriers still in the game are stronger, more selective, and not interested in running bad freight just to stay busy.

It might feel tough from the outside, but from a business standpoint, it makes sense.

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Fuel is back to being a problem

Fuel costs are climbing again, and it’s hitting hard.

• Fuel surcharges jumped 49% in one month
• Cost per mile increased rapidly in just a few weeks
• Diesel prices spiked $1.48 per gallon in three weeks
• Spot rates are climbing to keep up

In contract freight, fuel gets passed through. In spot freight, it shows up through rejections and higher rates.

Either way, someone pays for it. That’s how this industry works.

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The gap between contract and spot is disappearing

For a while, contract rates sat comfortably above spot. That gave shippers some breathing room.

That cushion is basically gone now:

• Spread was $0.41 last year → now down near $0.12
• Contract and spot rates are getting close to equal
• Repricing is happening fast across all equipment types

Contracts signed recently were based on a softer market. The ones coming up will be based on tighter capacity and higher costs.

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Produce season is about to add more pressure

Next up is produce season, right alongside enforcement week in May. That’s going to tighten things even more—especially in reefer.

Early signs are already there:

• Reefer rates are climbing fast
• South Texas and Florida are heating up
• Nogales is already seeing shortages
• Long-haul reefer loads are commanding premium pricing

Transportation might only be a small piece of the grocery cost, but when it comes to perishables, there’s no room to wait or negotiate.

If it needs to move, it’s moving.

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What this means moving forward

The market is improving, but not in a smooth or easy way.

• Demand is back
• Rates are finding real support
• Carriers have leverage again

At the same time, the overall economy still has some question marks, so things could shift quickly if conditions change.

Right now, freight has momentum—but so do the costs behind it.

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April Market Insights

‍By Mark Rudnitsky, Senior Executive at Inland Transport, Inc.

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