January | Market Insight

January Freight Market Recap
By Mark Rudnitsky, Senior Executive at Inland Transport, Inc.

The start of 2026 revealed a freight market that is operating very differently than it did one year ago. The holiday shipping season served as a major test for the industry, and the results showed just how sensitive the market has become to disruptions and seasonal pressure.

During the final weeks of 2025, the holiday surge created a noticeable increase in freight activity across many sectors. As seasonal demand increased and winter weather began impacting several regions, tender rejections climbed sharply. When carriers begin rejecting contracted freight at higher levels it forces more shipments into the spot market, which naturally drives rates higher.

That exact pattern played out during the holiday period. Spot market activity surged as more freight needed immediate coverage, and carriers began pricing more aggressively due to the increased demand for available trucks. By the end of December, spot market rates had climbed to some of the highest levels seen in several years.

As the industry moved into early January, some of that volatility began to ease as the holiday rush subsided and shipping patterns normalized. However, the freight market remains in a delicate balance. Rates remain elevated compared to last year, and even modest disruptions have the ability to quickly shift conditions.

Adding to the uncertainty is the potential for major winter weather events early in the year. Severe winter storms moving across large portions of the country have the ability to create immediate capacity disruptions. Ice, snow and extreme temperatures often force trucks off the road, close shipping facilities and delay freight movements across multiple regions at once.

When weather events like this occur, the impact can ripple across the entire supply chain. Even after conditions improve, delayed shipments often reenter the market all at once, creating a surge of demand for trucks that can drive additional short term rate volatility.

Looking beyond seasonal disruptions, the broader freight market continues to face several structural pressures. Capacity across the trucking industry has been gradually tightening due to rising operational costs. Higher equipment prices, increased insurance premiums, maintenance expenses and regulatory compliance costs have forced many smaller carriers to leave the industry over the past few years.

At the same time the driver workforce continues to face challenges. Stricter enforcement of CDL licensing requirements, training standards and compliance regulations are reducing the pace at which new drivers enter the industry. Ongoing reviews of licensing programs and training schools have also led to some improperly issued licenses being revoked, further tightening the driver pool.

Another factor shaping the freight market is the aging truck fleet currently operating across the country. Many carriers delayed purchasing new equipment during the recent freight downturn due to high costs and uncertainty around emissions regulations. As a result, the average age of trucks on the road is near record highs, which increases maintenance issues and reduces overall capacity.

Despite these challenges, the broader economy continues providing some stability for freight demand. Consumer spending remained resilient during the holiday season, and retail sales performed better than expected. Import volumes have softened compared to the surge experienced earlier in the year, but they remain strong compared to long term historical averages.

Manufacturing activity remains an area of concern for the freight market moving into 2026. Slower industrial production and uncertainty surrounding trade policy and tariffs continue weighing on business investment. While improvements in these areas could create stronger freight demand in the future, the timing and magnitude of those changes remain difficult to predict.

What the early weeks of 2026 have made clear is that the freight market is entering a new phase. Rather than long periods of stability, the market is likely to experience ongoing rate inflation combined with periods of heightened volatility around seasonal shipping cycles and unexpected disruptions.

For shippers, this means planning and communication will be more important than ever. Companies that rely heavily on last minute transportation arrangements may face greater challenges securing trucks during periods of disruption or increased demand.

Below are ten important strategies shippers should focus on as the freight market continues evolving throughout the year.

1. Provide additional lead time whenever possible so Inland Transport can secure reliable carrier capacity ahead of time.
2. Communicate upcoming shipments early with your Inland Transport account executive or account manager.
3. Budget appropriately for transportation expenses as operational costs across the trucking industry continue to rise.
4. Plan seasonal freight well in advance, especially ahead of the spring produce season and summer shipping peaks.
5. Work closely with Inland Transport to forecast freight volumes and plan capacity across key shipping lanes.
6. Remain flexible with pickup and delivery windows whenever possible to improve the likelihood of securing trucks.
7. Consolidate shipments when possible to improve trailer utilization and reduce transportation costs.
8. Avoid last minute shipment requests which often lead to higher spot market pricing.
9. Stay informed on regulatory changes affecting CDL drivers, compliance requirements and trucking operations.
10. Build a strong partnership with Inland Transport so your company has access to a dependable nationwide carrier network.

Looking ahead, transportation rates are expected to fluctuate throughout 2026 as the market continues adjusting to shifting supply and demand conditions. While rates may temporarily ease following seasonal surges, they are unlikely to return to the extremely low levels seen during the recent freight downturn.

As seasonal demand builds throughout the spring and summer months, additional capacity pressure may develop across several regions. The events of the holiday season and the early weeks of January demonstrate that even modest disruptions can create significant volatility when the market is operating with tighter capacity.

At Inland Transport, Inc., our team continuously monitors freight trends, carrier capacity and economic indicators across the country. By planning shipments early and maintaining strong relationships with reliable carriers, Inland Transport helps customers stay ahead of market shifts and keep their freight moving efficiently.

As 2026 continues to unfold, companies that focus on preparation, communication and strategic transportation planning with Inland Transport will remain best positioned to navigate changing market conditions and maintain reliable supply chain operations.

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January Freight Market Recap
By Mark Rudnitsky, Senior Executive at Inland Transport, Inc.

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