August 2026 | Market Insight

By Mark Rudnitsky, Senior Executive at Inland Transport, Inc.

The freight market continues to operate with tighter capacity as we move through August, even as seasonal demand has softened in several regions.

The biggest story remains truck supply. The market is not necessarily being driven by a major increase in freight volume, but rather by fewer available trucks. Driver recruitment challenges, regulatory pressure, higher operating costs, rising diesel prices, and limited fleet expansion continue to keep capacity below the levels shippers became accustomed to over the past few years.

At the same time, we are entering the peak of hurricane season. With less excess capacity available in the market, even a localized disruption has the potential to impact truck availability and pricing well beyond the affected region.

These same pressures are also beginning to show up more clearly in LTL. LTL pricing accelerated significantly during the second quarter as higher fuel costs combined with a tightening overall freight market.

Dry Van Market

Dry van conditions remain relatively stable heading into the second half of August, but capacity continues to be tighter than last year.

Following some seasonal easing after the Fourth of July, truck availability has improved in certain markets. However, carriers remain selective about the freight they accept, particularly on longer-haul shipments and lanes that do not fit efficiently within their networks.

We're continuing to see carriers prioritize customers and freight that provide consistent volume, efficient utilization, and stronger pricing.

Shippers should continue to expect:

• Tighter capacity than last year
• Firm spot market pricing
• Increased carrier selectivity
• More pressure on longer-haul freight
• Regional volatility when freight volumes shift

The market continues to move through an expansion phase, meaning rates are generally trending higher year over year as available truck capacity gradually tightens.

LTL Market

LTL costs have climbed sharply as higher fuel prices and tightening freight capacity create additional pricing pressure.

During the second quarter of 2026, the Less-Than-Truckload Producer Price Index, which measures total LTL prices paid by shippers including fuel, increased 19.6% year over year. That is the second-highest quarterly increase on record, behind the 22.1% increase experienced during the second quarter of 2022.

Fuel has been one of the biggest contributors. Diesel cost per mile increased more than 50% year over year during the second quarter of 2026, significantly increasing fuel-related transportation costs.

However, fuel is not the only factor driving LTL pricing higher.

The broader freight market is in a much different position than it was during the fuel-driven increase of 2022. At that time, truckload capacity was expanding and overall market conditions were beginning to soften.

Today, truckload capacity is contracting.

As carriers leave the market and available truck capacity declines, upward pricing pressure is developing across both truckload and LTL. Base linehaul rates are increasing alongside fuel surcharges, creating a much broader pricing shift.

The speed of the change is also significant.

The LTL Producer Price Index accelerated from a 5.9% year-over-year increase in the first quarter to 19.6% in the second quarter, a jump of 13.7 percentage points.

That represents the largest quarter-to-quarter increase in the history of the index and nearly double the next-largest increase previously recorded.

For shippers, this means LTL costs need to be watched more closely heading into the second half of the year. Consolidating shipments when possible, improving shipment density, and making sure weights, dimensions, classifications, and shipment details are accurate can help control unnecessary costs.

Carrier selection is also becoming increasingly important. LTL pricing can vary significantly depending on how well a shipment fits within a carrier's network. Matching freight with the right capacity and network can help reduce unnecessary miles, accessorial charges, and overall transportation costs.

Refrigerated Market

Refrigerated freight is becoming increasingly regional as summer produce season transitions into fall harvest activity.

The Southeast has started to loosen as summer produce volumes decline, improving outbound truck availability. However, this is creating a different challenge for freight moving into Florida and portions of the Southeast. With fewer outbound loads available, carriers can become more selective about entering these markets, creating potential service and pricing challenges for inbound freight.

Meanwhile, refrigerated demand is beginning to shift north and west.

Harvest activity in the Upper Midwest is creating localized capacity pressure, while the Pacific Northwest is beginning to tighten as seasonal commodities move into harvest. Refrigerated capacity in that region could continue tightening through the fall and into Thanksgiving.

Shippers moving temperature-controlled freight should expect conditions to vary significantly by region over the next several months.

Flatbed Market

Flatbed conditions have gradually eased following the volatility surrounding the Fourth of July.

Construction demand is beginning to moderate, and overall truck availability has improved across much of the country. However, rates remain above the unusually soft levels experienced during the past several years.

Residential construction continues to face pressure, but manufacturing and industrial activity remain important sources of flatbed demand. Manufacturing strengthened in July, while continued investment in infrastructure, AI projects, and data center construction is helping support industrial freight volumes.

We expect flatbed capacity to gradually improve through August, although regional projects and weather events can still create short-term tightening.

Hurricane Season

Hurricane season becomes an increasingly important factor for freight markets as we move through August and into September.

Because the truckload market has less excess capacity than it did in previous years, a major storm impacting the Southeast or Gulf Coast could create a much larger transportation disruption.

Before a storm, shippers often accelerate shipments and reposition inventory while carriers begin moving equipment away from affected areas. That can quickly tighten capacity and increase spot rates.

After a major storm, demand can remain elevated for weeks or even months as food, water, building materials, equipment, and recovery supplies move into affected areas. Trucks can also be pulled away from neighboring markets, creating capacity challenges far beyond the immediate storm zone.

For shippers with freight moving through Florida, the Southeast, or Gulf Coast, having a transportation contingency plan in place before a storm develops is increasingly important.

What We're Seeing

The freight market continues to tighten primarily because of capacity rather than a major surge in freight demand.

Carriers remain disciplined about adding equipment, with many fleets focused on replacing aging trucks rather than expanding. At the same time, driver recruitment and retention continue to be major challenges.

Higher diesel costs are adding another layer of pressure, particularly within LTL, where fuel surcharges and increasing base rates are contributing to a noticeable increase in overall transportation costs.

We're continuing to see:

• More selective carrier behavior
• Firm pricing across key lanes
• Less excess truck capacity than previous years
• Rising LTL transportation costs
• Higher fuel-related transportation expenses
• Regional volatility depending on freight flows
• Increased sensitivity to weather and other disruptions
• Shippers placing greater importance on securing dependable capacity

The market is becoming more balanced, but it is clearly no longer operating with the abundance of inexpensive capacity seen during the previous freight downturn.

What Shippers Should Do

To stay ahead in today's market:

• Book freight as early as possible
• Build additional lead time into important shipments
• Stay flexible with pickup and delivery schedules
• Communicate upcoming volume changes
• Develop contingency plans for hurricane season
• Consolidate LTL shipments when possible
• Verify LTL weights, dimensions, and freight classifications
• Watch accessorial charges and shipment accuracy
• Avoid waiting until freight becomes urgent to secure capacity

For LTL specifically, shipment accuracy is becoming increasingly important. Incorrect dimensions, weights, classifications, or shipment characteristics can result in reclassification charges, inspections, and additional accessorial fees at a time when base transportation costs are already increasing.

Shippers should also evaluate opportunities to consolidate freight. Combining smaller shipments or increasing shipment density can improve transportation efficiency and help offset some of the impact from higher linehaul rates and fuel surcharges.

Most importantly, work with a logistics provider that understands where capacity is moving and maintains strong relationships with dependable carriers.

At Inland Transport, Inc., we focus on positioning freight with reliable carriers already operating within the market while staying ahead of regional capacity and pricing changes across truckload and LTL. That helps our customers reduce last-minute disruptions, control transportation costs, and maintain consistent service as conditions change.

August 2026 Outlook

The freight market should remain relatively stable through the remainder of August, but the underlying capacity environment continues to tighten.

Dry van pricing is expected to remain firm, refrigerated freight will continue shifting with harvest activity, and flatbed capacity should gradually improve as peak construction season begins to moderate.

LTL pricing is likely to remain elevated as higher diesel costs combine with tightening capacity and increasing base linehaul rates. The rapid increase in LTL pricing during the second quarter is an important indicator that the effects of capacity contraction are beginning to extend beyond the truckload spot market.

The biggest short-term wildcard remains hurricane season. With less excess capacity available across the truckload market, a significant storm could quickly tighten regional capacity and create pricing pressure across surrounding markets.

For now, the market remains manageable, but there is less room for disruption than there was a year ago. Shippers that plan ahead, communicate volume early, optimize LTL shipments, and secure dependable capacity before freight becomes urgent will be in the strongest position heading into the fall.

Need Help With a Shipment?

As market conditions continue to change, having dependable capacity and the right transportation strategy can make a significant difference.

Whether you need LTL, Truckload, Expedited, Drayage, Heavy Haul, or Air Freight, Inland Transport, Inc. is ready to help.

Call us today for a quote or help with your next shipment.

407-858-3039

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