By Mark Rudnitsky, Senior Executive at Inland Transport, Inc.

MARKET OVERVIEW

The U.S. freight market has cooled from the sharp rate increases experienced during the early summer, but overall truckload pricing remains elevated compared with last year.

Capacity conditions have improved since the July peak, while uneven freight demand has allowed the market to return to more traditional seasonal patterns.

However, the underlying capacity environment remains tight. Higher insurance costs, stricter driver requirements, regulatory enforcement, carrier exits, and rising operating expenses continue to put pressure on trucking supply.

For shippers, this means the market may feel relatively stable today, but it remains more sensitive to sudden changes in demand, weather, holidays, and other disruptions.

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DRY VAN

Dry van spot rates have continued to ease from their early-July highs.

The current industry outlook projects dry van cost per mile to finish approximately 30% higher year over year in 2026, followed by approximately 10% year-over-year growth in 2027.

While demand remains relatively moderate, continued pressure on available trucking capacity could keep rates elevated heading into next year.

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What Shippers Should Know

Capacity is currently more manageable than it was during the summer peak, making September an important time to review routing guides, carrier relationships, and upcoming Q4 freight needs.

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REFRIGERATED

The refrigerated market is experiencing a seasonal shift.

Northern markets have tightened as late-summer and fall harvests increase demand for refrigerated equipment. Potatoes, onions, apples, corn, cherries, and other seasonal commodities are contributing to stronger outbound freight demand across northern agricultural regions.

Southern markets are moving in the opposite direction as produce seasons wind down, resulting in softer demand and improved refrigerated capacity.

The current outlook projects refrigerated truckload costs approximately 31% higher year over year in 2026 and approximately 11% higher in 2027.

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What Shippers Should Know

Reefer conditions can vary significantly by region. Shippers should pay close attention to origin markets rather than assuming nationwide capacity and pricing conditions are the same.

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LESS-THAN-TRUCKLOAD (LTL)

Overall LTL market conditions remain stable, but early signs of increased service variability are beginning to appear across different regions and carrier networks.

During the prolonged freight downturn, LTL carriers benefited from significant excess network capacity. This allowed carriers to absorb disruptions while maintaining exceptionally strong service levels. As freight volumes gradually increase and carrier networks become busier, the market is beginning to return to more normal operating conditions.

This does not indicate widespread service problems. Transit times remain generally reliable. However, carriers now have less excess capacity available to absorb sudden demand increases, localized congestion, weather events, or other operational disruptions.

Some of this shift may also be connected to freight moving from truckload back into LTL as truckload pricing increases.

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Cost, Capacity & Service

For shippers, LTL transportation increasingly requires balancing three important factors: cost, capacity, and service.

During the softer freight market, abundant capacity allowed shippers to aggressively pursue competitive rates while still receiving strong service. As networks become busier, that balance becomes more important.

Freight that does not align well with a particular carrier's network may experience greater variability in transit times and on-time performance. Selecting a carrier based solely on the lowest rate can therefore create additional service risk as market conditions tighten.

Carriers are expected to remain focused on network optimization, improving yield, and becoming increasingly selective about the freight they accept.

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What Shippers Should Know

Carrier selection matters more as networks get busier.

Matching each shipment with the right LTL carrier based on lane, region, freight characteristics, service requirements, and carrier network strength can help reduce delays, minimize unexpected issues, and maintain more consistent performance.

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FLATBED

Flatbed rates have softened from their summer highs but remain elevated compared with recent years.

Industrial activity, manufacturing, energy infrastructure, data centers, and other large-scale projects continue to support flatbed demand even as residential construction remains relatively soft.

The current outlook projects flatbed costs approximately 28% higher year over year in 2026, with another approximately 10% increase projected for 2027.

Flatbed conditions are expected to gradually stabilize through the remainder of the year, although regional demand, weather, commodity movements, and major projects can quickly affect available capacity.

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CAPACITY & CARRIER CONDITIONS

The trucking industry continues to operate with less excess capacity than it had during the previous several years.

Carriers are becoming increasingly selective about the freight they accept. Many are prioritizing dedicated freight, round-trip opportunities, and consistent long-term business over transactional shipments.

At the same time, insurance, maintenance, equipment, driver recruiting, and labor costs continue to pressure carrier profitability.

Fleet expansion also remains limited, with many carriers focused on maximizing existing equipment rather than aggressively adding trucks.

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LOOKING AHEAD TO Q4

The freight market has stabilized since the summer peak, but shippers should not mistake stability for unlimited capacity.

As the industry moves toward the final quarter of 2026, holiday shipping, weather events, regional demand shifts, and continued carrier capacity reductions could create periods of tighter availability and increased pricing.

The key for shippers will be planning ahead, maintaining reliable carrier relationships, and creating backup capacity before disruptions occur.

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INLAND TRANSPORT MARKET INSIGHT

At Inland Transport, our focus is helping customers navigate changing market conditions without overcomplicating transportation.

With access to truckload, refrigerated, flatbed, LTL, drayage, expedited, intermodal, warehousing, and final-mile solutions, our team works with shippers to build dependable transportation strategies across changing freight environments.

For LTL specifically, our focus is not simply finding the lowest available rate. It is matching freight with carriers whose networks, lanes, and service capabilities best fit the shipment. As LTL networks become busier, that carrier alignment becomes increasingly important.

September's takeaway is simple:

The market has cooled, but capacity remains tighter than it has been in recent years. Plan ahead, choose the right carrier for the freight, and build flexibility into your transportation strategy before the market tightens again.

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By Mark Rudnitsky, Senior Executive at Inland Transport, Inc.

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